Oh BRILLIANT, just brilliant. Wonderful analysis written up perfectly for the moment.
I would add this to your calculations. TWO BILLION people are going to die over the next 10 years. Probably 4 billion by 2050.
The "Climate Crisis" is finally here and it's SO much worse than we thought it was going to be. We are at +1.6°C over baseline in 2024 and so far 2025 has been hotter still.
The Rate of Warming has accelerated to around +0.36°C PER DECADE.
By 2035 we WILL be at +2°C sustained and on our way to +3°C by 2050.
Just last month the the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) Exeter released a report on the effects of Climate Change. It hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. It states in plain unequivocal language what the professional RISK MANAGEMENT experts now think.
"At +3°C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events."
They find that.
"Unfortunately, many high-profile, public climate change risk assessments are significantly underestimating risk because they exclude many of the real-world impacts of climate change, such as the impact of tipping points, extreme events, migration, sea level rise, human health impacts or geopolitical risk."
"Furthermore, they calculate ongoing economic growth, even in a hothouse world, with climate damages being lower than growth assumptions. These results conflict with scientific predictions of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change."
“These (mainstream) risk assessments are precisely wrong, rather than being roughly right.”
At +2.0°C of warming they forecast.
"2 billion deaths. Breakdown of some critical ecosystem services and Earth systems. Major extinction events in multiple geographies. Ocean circulation severely impacted. Severe socio-political fragmentation in many regions, with low lying regions lost. Heat and water stress drive involuntary mass migration of billions. Catastrophic mortality events from disease, malnutrition, thirst and conflict."
Now, recast your political analysis through the lens of this overarching CLIMATE APOCALYPSE that's unfolding. What becomes absolutely clear is that.
The ENDGAME has started.
Some people already know it. They are trying VERY hard to keep the majority of us from understanding that.
I was working on a nice essay about how societies are going to collapse as more people wake up to that reality staring them in the face, and how desperately governments are trying to keep that under wraps to maintain societal stability as long as possible - unfortunately life comes at a person fast these days and ranting about the USA committing suicide while people shrug and blame it all on a mad king got top billing to rant about instead.
If the USA goes into full chaos mode, that's going to *rapidly* accelerate the breakdown of most societies, we're talking the end of the modern economy globally if there is a treasury payments default and I suspect that is what is being engineered by handing control over the treasury to Musk. Huge amounts of people who were already on the verge of no longer participating in the elements which maintain society as functional are going to tap out in that scenario.
We aren't going to coast into the climate apocalypse, we're getting a couple decades of raw chaos and suffering long before the temperature starts to kill en-masse.
They found a cheap way to buy a country - a big one . Trump always cheats those working for him - and if he were to disappear , a war of underlings will follow . It looks bad no matter how it plays .
It's going to be a very messy process decoupling from the USA economically, for most nations, messier the faster they need to do it and current events make it clear they need to do it as fast as possible as the USA can no longer be relied on to honor any agreements. With the speed at which these rogue elements are succeeding at dismantling the apparatus of governance, I think most nations will get caught in the economic blast wave as the USA collapses.
I grossly underestimated the avarice of the oligarch class in America: I thought they'd be fine with having effectively mastered unlimited money, did not believe they would preemptively burn the whole thing down just to try and carve petty fiefdoms out of the ashes. I failed to anticipate how many of them would see Cypto as a way to ensure their own capital-backed power transitioned smoothly through that chaos.
The Heritage Foundation was very notably involved alongside the National Endowment for Democracy with the CIA coup that partitioned the USSR, so their involvement is a particularly sinister sign.
It’s also clear that the fact that Greenhouse Effect would become catastrophic became apparent by the mid-1950s. While the severity of how catastrophic it would demonstrably become increased over time (Venus was never a real option), denialism & cashing out & running after bringing the disaster down on everyone’s heads has been the plan from day one.
Oh BRILLIANT, just brilliant. Wonderful analysis written up perfectly for the moment.
I would add this to your calculations. TWO BILLION people are going to die over the next 10 years. Probably 4 billion by 2050.
The "Climate Crisis" is finally here and it's SO much worse than we thought it was going to be. We are at +1.6°C over baseline in 2024 and so far 2025 has been hotter still.
The Rate of Warming has accelerated to around +0.36°C PER DECADE.
By 2035 we WILL be at +2°C sustained and on our way to +3°C by 2050.
Just last month the the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) Exeter released a report on the effects of Climate Change. It hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. It states in plain unequivocal language what the professional RISK MANAGEMENT experts now think.
"At +3°C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events."
They find that.
"Unfortunately, many high-profile, public climate change risk assessments are significantly underestimating risk because they exclude many of the real-world impacts of climate change, such as the impact of tipping points, extreme events, migration, sea level rise, human health impacts or geopolitical risk."
"Furthermore, they calculate ongoing economic growth, even in a hothouse world, with climate damages being lower than growth assumptions. These results conflict with scientific predictions of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change."
“These (mainstream) risk assessments are precisely wrong, rather than being roughly right.”
At +2.0°C of warming they forecast.
"2 billion deaths. Breakdown of some critical ecosystem services and Earth systems. Major extinction events in multiple geographies. Ocean circulation severely impacted. Severe socio-political fragmentation in many regions, with low lying regions lost. Heat and water stress drive involuntary mass migration of billions. Catastrophic mortality events from disease, malnutrition, thirst and conflict."
Now, recast your political analysis through the lens of this overarching CLIMATE APOCALYPSE that's unfolding. What becomes absolutely clear is that.
The ENDGAME has started.
Some people already know it. They are trying VERY hard to keep the majority of us from understanding that.
I was working on a nice essay about how societies are going to collapse as more people wake up to that reality staring them in the face, and how desperately governments are trying to keep that under wraps to maintain societal stability as long as possible - unfortunately life comes at a person fast these days and ranting about the USA committing suicide while people shrug and blame it all on a mad king got top billing to rant about instead.
If the USA goes into full chaos mode, that's going to *rapidly* accelerate the breakdown of most societies, we're talking the end of the modern economy globally if there is a treasury payments default and I suspect that is what is being engineered by handing control over the treasury to Musk. Huge amounts of people who were already on the verge of no longer participating in the elements which maintain society as functional are going to tap out in that scenario.
We aren't going to coast into the climate apocalypse, we're getting a couple decades of raw chaos and suffering long before the temperature starts to kill en-masse.
They found a cheap way to buy a country - a big one . Trump always cheats those working for him - and if he were to disappear , a war of underlings will follow . It looks bad no matter how it plays .
It's going to be a very messy process decoupling from the USA economically, for most nations, messier the faster they need to do it and current events make it clear they need to do it as fast as possible as the USA can no longer be relied on to honor any agreements. With the speed at which these rogue elements are succeeding at dismantling the apparatus of governance, I think most nations will get caught in the economic blast wave as the USA collapses.
I grossly underestimated the avarice of the oligarch class in America: I thought they'd be fine with having effectively mastered unlimited money, did not believe they would preemptively burn the whole thing down just to try and carve petty fiefdoms out of the ashes. I failed to anticipate how many of them would see Cypto as a way to ensure their own capital-backed power transitioned smoothly through that chaos.
The Heritage Foundation was very notably involved alongside the National Endowment for Democracy with the CIA coup that partitioned the USSR, so their involvement is a particularly sinister sign.
It’s also clear that the fact that Greenhouse Effect would become catastrophic became apparent by the mid-1950s. While the severity of how catastrophic it would demonstrably become increased over time (Venus was never a real option), denialism & cashing out & running after bringing the disaster down on everyone’s heads has been the plan from day one.